A new report from the Congressional Research Service highlights both the promise and the current limitations of artificial intelligence (AI) as a driver of economic growth in the United States. Released in early April, the report notes that while AI tools like ChatGPT have captured public attention, widespread adoption and transformative effects across the economy remain nascent.
According to the report, just 5.4% of U.S. businesses had adopted AI by early 2024, up from 3.7% in late 2023. Adoption varies widely by sector, with the information sector leading at 18.1%. Despite projections that private investment in AI will rise to $81.7 billion in 2025, the diffusion of AI technologies is expected to unfold gradually, mirroring the slow integration of personal computers and cloud computing.
The report identifies labor productivity as the most likely channel for AI’s macroeconomic impact. Some studies estimate that if AI automates 25% of all work tasks, it could raise labor productivity by 15%. Over the long term, this could translate into a 0.9% cumulative increase in gross domestic product (GDP). More optimistic scenarios suggest GDP could grow by up to 35% above baseline over several decades, depending on sectoral adoption and productivity gains.
AI’s effect on employment remains complex. Most firms using AI report replacing only a small number of tasks so far, with limited changes in employment. While AI could displace some jobs, it may also create new roles or improve productivity, particularly among lower-skilled workers.
However, the report warns that productivity gains from AI could exacerbate income inequality if higher-skilled workers benefit disproportionately. Policymakers may need to consider strategies to ensure equitable distribution of AI’s economic gains and prepare for labor market transitions.
The report arrives amid heightened congressional attention to AI, including a bipartisan House task force launched in 2024. As AI continues to evolve, lawmakers are increasingly focused on balancing innovation with safeguards for workers, consumers, and economic stability.
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