The European Union’s fight against serious and organized crime is facing an urgent turning point, according to the newly released EU Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (EU-SOCTA) 2025. Produced by Europol, the report identifies a radical transformation in the criminal underworld—driven by geopolitics, digital dependency, and emerging technologies—signaling a fundamental shift in the tactics, structure, and reach of criminal networks across Europe.
Europol Executive Director Catherine De Bolle described the threat as evolving at “unprecedented speed,” with organised crime increasingly destabilising European societies, embedding itself online, and weaponizing artificial intelligence and other new technologies. “The very DNA of organised crime is changing,” De Bolle wrote in the report’s foreword. “Our response must be equally dynamic.”
The report outlines three interlinked dynamics shaping today’s criminal landscape: a growing destabilization of the EU economy and institutions, a full-scale migration of crime to the digital world, and the accelerating role of AI in facilitating criminal operations. Together, these trends are creating what Europol calls a “hybrid threat environment,” where state and non-state actors work in tandem to exploit vulnerabilities for both profit and geopolitical influence.
One of the report’s most striking warnings is the deepening nexus between organised crime groups and foreign state-aligned actors. Criminal networks are increasingly acting as proxies in hybrid operations—including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and sabotage of critical infrastructure—blurring the lines between criminal activity and covert warfare.
“This cooperation is not just about profit,” the report states. “It extends to strategic goals: weakening democratic institutions, disrupting social cohesion, and eroding trust in governance.”
Online infrastructure has become central to nearly every form of organised crime. From trafficking and fraud to extortion and recruitment, the internet is both a tool and a target. Criminals use encrypted messaging, social media, and darknet markets to coordinate operations, launder money, and exploit victims—particularly youth—who are recruited online for everything from street violence to cybercrime.
AI and other technologies are amplifying the scale, speed, and reach of these operations. Criminal groups are using generative AI to produce deepfakes, launch misinformation campaigns, and automate phishing attacks. In some cases, entire business models such as ransomware-as-a-service or violence-as-a-service are emerging, complete with customer support and digital payment integration.
Perhaps most alarming is the widespread infiltration of legitimate businesses by criminal networks. Legal business structures, from logistics firms to real estate, are being used to mask illegal activity, launder proceeds, and exert influence in the formal economy. Coupled with corruption and access to advanced tools like AI-driven analytics or blockchain, these groups are becoming harder to detect and dismantle.
The report also spotlights youth exploitation, noting a sharp increase in minors being groomed online to commit violence, handle drugs, or act as money mules. Europol warns that these tactics are not only difficult to police but also deeply damaging to communities.
Despite past investments in law enforcement cooperation and asset recovery, the report finds that only around 2 percent of illicit proceeds are currently confiscated—highlighting the resilience and sophistication of modern criminal networks.
EU-SOCTA 2025 concludes with a call for coordinated, intelligence-led responses across borders and institutions. It urges policymakers to strengthen Europol’s mandate, improve digital infrastructure for law enforcement, and engage in a long-term, proactive strategy to defend against emerging threats.
The report will directly inform EU-wide operational priorities under the European Multidisciplinary Platform Against Criminal Threats, setting the tone for the bloc’s internal security strategy over the next five years.
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